Lecture 2.2

Modernization Theory

Emmanuel Teitelbaum

Measuring Wealth

GDP and GDP per Capita

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
    • Total value of goods and services produced within a country
  • GDP per capita
    • GDP divided by total population
  • Generally speaking, we use GDP per capita to measure wealth of individual countries
  • Whereas GDP may be more of a measure of power or influence

World’s Largest Economies


World’s Wealthiest Countries


Measuring Democracy

The V-Dem Institute

  • Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem)
  • Polyarchy score
    • Robert Dahl
    • Polyarch–form of government in which power is vested in multiple people
  • V-Dem’s polyarch index is based on concept of electoral democracy

Polyarchy (Electoral Democracy)


Polyarchy: “seeks to embody the core value of making rulers responsive to citizens, achieved through electoral competition…[P]olitical and civil society organizations can operate freely, elections are clean..and affect the composition of the chief executive.”

Other V-Dem Indices

  • Liberal: checks on executive power, rights protections, rule of law
  • Participatory: citizen participation beyond elections
  • Deliberative: reasoned public debate and justification
  • Egalitarian: equal political access and influence

Most Democratic Countries (Polyarchy)


Modernization Theory

What is Modernization Theory?

  • Based on observation by Lipset (1959)
  • Noted that democracy is highly correlated with development
  • Took on guise of causal argument
    • Wealth → democaracy

Some Stylized Facts

  • Wealthier countries tend to be more democratic
  • Relationship tends to be stronger before WWII
  • There also tend to be big regional differences
    • In some regions the relationship is evident
    • In others, not as much

Modernization Before 1945


Modernization in the Post-War Period


“Endogenous Democratization”

  • Democracy is a direct consequence of economic development
  • Przeworski’s term for modernization theory
    • Endogenous–coming from within
    • Democracy is a result of wealth

Proposed Mechanisms

  • Industrialization
  • Urbanization
  • Rise of middle class
  • Education

Exogenous Democratization

  • Exogenous–resulting from an external cause
  • Wealth does not cause democracy
  • But democracy is more easily sustained in wealthy countries
  • Przeworski’s argument against modernization theory

Democratic Survival and Income


“No democracy has ever fallen in a country with a per capita income higher than that of Argentina in 1975.”

— Adam Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development (2000)


Empirical threshold - ≈ $6,000 GDP per capita (1990 PPP dollars) - Above this level, democracies are observed to be ‘immortal’ in the data


Key point: income predicts democratic survival, not democratic transition

Breaking it Down

Democracy and Development by Region


Democracy and Development Over Time


Discussion

Three Theories

  • Modernization; exogenous; and inclusive institutions (A&R)
  • Sketch the causal arrow for each theory
  • Choose a country (your favorite or from the list)

Possible cases (pick one): South Korea, Chile, Ghana, India, Singapore, Nigeria, Poland, Mexico, China

Discussion Prompts

  • Which theory fits your case best? Which fits worst?
  • What evidence would change your mind?
  • Is it “deviant” relative to any theory?
  • How does your case fit to the “universe” of cases?
    • e.g. all of the countries for all of the years